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$17 million or $8.5 million council chooses $8.5

 
There was a decent discussion on the subject of the Carriage Trails Supplement last Council meeting.  I recommend watching the video on the City's Website. Putting the bottom line up front; if the City didn't supplement the building of Carriage Trails it would likely net $17.4 million dollars over the next 21 years.  If council keeps supplementing the development the most it can net is $8.5 million dollars.  You can look at the table I created found at the end of this article.  I've asked city staff to quality control my calculations which I don't expect to be perfect but as always I'm hoping to prompt the creation of an official calculation that we can put on the official city website so residents don't have to rely on me trying to make sense of presentations that are loosely given and not backed up with any supporting documents. 

 To see where I get the numbers I'm using go to the video.  The discussion starts at 58 minutes and 48 seconds.  I thought I would  produce a table below based on the numbers provided to show how much would be collected if the developer were to sell 30 houses per year and the city netted $53,000 per house (we don't provide any supplement) versus how much the city would collect if the developer were to sell $110 houses per year and city netted $16,000 per house.  However, this is much more complicated than a simple multiplication.    The discussion on the information used to get the numbers in the paragraph above starts at 1 hour into 15 minutes and 20 seconds into the video.  Other numbers to be aware of that make the calculation more complicated include:  There are approximately 471 houses built there already.  There are already 600 lots created and (mostly) sold.  The total development will be about 1200 houses.  The TIFF district lasts for about 21 more years.   For un-supplemented lots this would be $53,000 /  21 years = $2,523 in collections per year.   For supplemented lots this would be $16,000 /  21 years = $761 in collections per year.

Writing out that paragraph above helped and I was able put together the table below using that information.  Since this was originally written at 4 in the morning please check my work.  But this is what I'm calculating:  Not supplementing the houses but only producing 30 houses a year nets the city $17.4 million dollars.  Supplementing the houses but being able to produce 110 houses nets the city $8.5 million dollars.  If the number of house drops from 110 per year to just 15 per year the city will still net about the same amount - $8.7 million.  
 
Year # Houses Built total TIFF $ net to city no supplement    Year # Houses Built TIFF $ net to city with supplement
1 30 $75,690.00   1 110 $83,710.00
2 60 $151,380.00   2 220 $167,420.00
3 90 $227,070.00   3 330 $251,130.00
4 120 $302,760.00   4 440 $334,840.00
5 150 $378,450.00   5 550 $418,550.00
6 180 $454,140.00   6 600 $456,600.00
7 210 $529,830.00   7 600 $456,600.00
8 240 $605,520.00   8 600 $456,600.00
9 270 $681,210.00   9 600 $456,600.00
10 300 $756,900.00   10 600 $456,600.00
11 330 $832,590.00   11 600 $456,600.00
12 360 $908,280.00   12 600 $456,600.00
13 390 $983,970.00   13 600 $456,600.00
14 420 $1,059,660.00   14 600 $456,600.00
15 450 $1,135,350.00   15 600 $456,600.00
16 480 $1,211,040.00   16 600 $456,600.00
17 510 $1,286,730.00   17 600 $456,600.00
18 540 $1,362,420.00   18 600 $456,600.00
19 570 $1,438,110.00   19 600 $456,600.00
20 600 $1,513,800.00   20 600 $456,600.00
21 600 $1,513,800.00   21 600 $456,600.00
  Total Net to City $17,408,700.00     Total Net $8,561,250.00


Here are the numbers if the not providing the supplement reduces the number of houses built from about 110 to 15 per year.  
Year # Houses Built TIFF $ net to city no supplement  house
1 15 $37,845.00
2 30 $75,690.00
3 45 $113,535.00
4 60 $151,380.00
5 75 $189,225.00
6 90 $227,070.00
7 105 $264,915.00
8 120 $302,760.00
9 135 $340,605.00
10 150 $378,450.00
11 165 $416,295.00
12 180 $454,140.00
13 195 $491,985.00
14 210 $529,830.00
15 225 $567,675.00
16 240 $605,520.00
17 255 $643,365.00
18 270 $681,210.00
19 285 $719,055.00
20 300 $756,900.00
21 315 $794,745.00
  Total net to city $8,742,195.00
 
   

One item that I've not discussed in either of these posts that makes a big difference to me is the amount going to the school system.  I thought about this when I made some edits this morning and planned to put this note at the end.  Today I see the first check from the city and it highlights that this is necessary for a full discussion.  The TIFF collected that goes to the school is about $152,000 total for the 48 houses or $3167 per house.  From what I've seen today, I believe that city staff will work with me to produce calculations that will provide a better product to help in the decision process now and going forward.  



Here are some recent articles that I'm hoping prompts you to support my efforts in Council by voting for the challengers in this election:  Richard Shaw, Glenn Otto, Richard Stan and Janell Smith

DDN article concerning staff at General Council Meetings

Recent videos from Local 2926 interviews

Ed Lyons - Thank you council for a billion dollars!

Election message for the residents of Huber Heights

There are reasons I like Richard Stan for Ward 6 Council Representative

Letter to Ward 6 residents

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